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No LLM calls.\nReads the ticket DAG and manifest ledger history, then emits tier + mode\nfor every ticket so the dispatcher knows which model to invoke and whether\nto ladder.\n\n## Usage\n\n```\nmodel-router [--tickets <path>] [--floor <number>] [--json]\n```\n\n### Flags\n\n| Flag | Default | Description |\n|------|---------|-------------|\n| `--tickets <path>` | `.adlc/tickets.json` | Path to the tickets file |\n| `--floor <n>` | `0.2` | Minimum rail density for cheap-tier assignment. `n` must be greater than 0 and at most 1 — the range is `(0, 1]`. `0` is rejected with exit 1 because it would disable the P3 rail-density gate (every ticket would pass and unrailed tickets would leave frontier, #697). |\n| `--json` | off | Machine-readable JSON output (for orchestrators) |\n\n## Output\n\n### Human table (default)\n\nColumns: `id`, `tier`, `mode`, `railDensity`, `float`, `reason`\n\n```\nid            tier        mode      railDensity  float   reason\n---------------------------------------------------------------\nAUTH-1        cheap       ladder    1.000        3       float=3 → ladder starting at 'cheap' (railDensity=1.000)\nAUTH-2        frontier    direct    0.000        0       category 'spec' requires frontier model\n```\n\n### JSON (--json)\n\n```json\n{\n  \"assignments\": [\n    {\n      \"id\": \"AUTH-1\",\n      \"tier\": \"cheap\",\n      \"mode\": \"ladder\",\n      \"railDensity\": 1.0,\n      \"float\": 3,\n      \"reason\": \"...\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"p3Findings\": []\n}\n```\n\n## Exit codes\n\n| Code | Meaning |\n|------|---------|\n| `0` | All tickets assigned; gate passes |\n| `1` | Operational error (bad tickets file, JSON parse error, cycle in DAG, or `--floor` outside `(0, 1]` — `0` is refused, not treated as \"no minimum\") |\n| `2` | Gate fails: one or more non-frontier-category tickets have `railDensity < floor` |\n\n## Assignment rules (ADLC D1)\n\n### Rule 1: Frontier / Direct\n\nApplies when:\n- `ticket.category` is one of `contract`, `spec`, `architecture`\n- OR `railDensity < floor` (regardless of category — this also triggers exit 2)\n\nResult: `tier=frontier`, `mode=direct`\n\nRationale: These tickets produce outputs that are hard to verify deterministically (contracts, specs) or where an escaped error is expensive to find. Only the frontier model is appropriate. Tickets below the rail-density floor are also sent here because the gates are insufficient to catch regeneration failures cheaply — this is surfaced as a P3 finding (the ticket is not railed enough to build cheaply).\n\n### Rule 2: Direct (critical path)\n\nApplies when: `float === 0` (ticket is on the critical path)\n\nResult: `mode=direct`, `tier` = best-performing tier from prior data with >= 3 samples, else `mid`\n\nRationale: A failed attempt on a critical-path ticket delays the entire delivery. Skip the escalation ladder; go straight to the highest first-pass-rate tier.\n\n### Rule 3: Ladder (has slack)\n\nApplies when: `float > 0`\n\nResult: `mode=ladder`, `tier` = `cheap` if `railDensity >= 0.5` else `mid`\n\nRationale: Retries on tickets with DAG float are absorbed by schedule slack with no wall-clock penalty. Start cheap; the escalation harness regenerates one tier up on gate failure, appending the known-dead-ends to the ticket context.\n\n## Concepts\n\n### Rail density\n\n```\nrailDensity = min(1, rails.length / scope.length)   # 0 when rails or scope is absent/empty\n```\n\nA ticket with rails but **no scope** (missing or empty) has density **0**, not 1:\nrails without a bounded scope are unbounded, and an unbounded ticket must not\nbe routed to the cheapest tier on the strength of a denominator that was never\nmeasured (#698). Give the ticket a scope to route it cheap.\n\n`rails` is the list of frozen paths that provide deterministic checks (test files, contract files). `scope` is the set of paths the ticket may touch. High density means most outputs are covered by fast, deterministic gates; errors are caught cheaply and regeneration is inexpensive.\n\nDensity of `0` (no rails) means there are no automated gates — any error escapes to humans. Such tickets are routed to `frontier` regardless of category and trigger a P3 gate-fail finding.\n\n### DAG float (CPM)\n\nClassic critical-path-method float from `computeFloat()` in `@adlc/core`. Float is the amount of time a ticket can slip without delaying the overall delivery (`makespan`). Tickets on the critical path have `float === 0`.\n\n### Priors from the manifest ledger\n\nEvery `build`-type entry in `.adlc/manifest.jsonl` with shape `{ model, category, firstPass: boolean }` is counted. Success rate per model (and per model + category when >= 3 samples exist) is computed with Laplace smoothing:\n\n```\nrate = (passes + 1) / (n + 2)\n```\n\nFor critical-path tickets (Rule 2), the model name in the ledger is matched against the tier names `cheap`, `mid`, `frontier` to produce a tier recommendation. If no tier-named model has enough data, defaults to `mid`.\n\n## ADLC phase\n\nD1 — The cost dial: model routing.\n\nmodel-router is the first decision in the D-series (Dispatch). It runs before fan-out (D2) and merge-forecast. Its output drives the dispatcher's `--tier` and `--mode` arguments.\n\nSibling tools:\n- `fan-out` (D2) — uses the tier assignments to set parallelism budgets\n- `flail-detector` — triggers escalation when a running job exceeds the failure threshold, consuming the `mode=ladder` assignments\n- `rails-guard` — enforces that `rails` paths exist before allowing the build to start\n\n## Core gaps\n\n`@adlc/core` (frozen) has no completion-aware ticket loader: `loadTickets`\nreturns every ticket including ones tombstoned with `completed: true`. A\nfinished ticket must not be assigned a model or gated, so\n`lib/active-tickets.mjs` filters completed tickets locally (dropping them and\nstripping edges to them so the remaining DAG stays valid). An identical copy\nlives in `merge-forecast` and `coldstart`. Everything else (`loadTickets`,\n`computeFloat`, `readEntries`, `parseArgs`, `pass`, `gateFail`, `opError`,\n`printJson`) is available in `@adlc/core`.\n","readmeFilename":"README.md"}