# Growth loops, segmentation, and the sunset policy

The list compounds through three loops and stays healthy through engagement
tiering. Numbers below are dated; treat them as calibration, not promises.

## Referral program

- **Lift:** referral programs raise subscriber growth ~17% on average and can
  accelerate growth 20–200%. The Hustle's referral drives ~10%+ of its free-list
  growth. (beehiiv growth guide; Partnero/Paved referral guides — accessed 2026-06-02.)
- **Where the ask lives:** inside the welcome sequence (email 3) AND as a
  persistent footer block on every issue. Asking once, late, wastes the loop.
- **Reward tiers:** make the first reward cheap and fast to unlock (e.g. 3
  referrals) so subscribers get an early win, then ladder up. Digital rewards
  (archive access, a guide, swag) beat cash for newsletters.
- **Mechanics:** each subscriber gets a unique referral link; track referred
  signups, not raw shares. Reward only on confirmed (double opt-in) referrals so
  the loop does not import junk.

## Signup incentive / lead magnet

- A specific, immediately useful asset converts a subscribe far better than a
  generic "join our newsletter."
- The asset doubles as shareable bait for the referral loop — make it good
  enough to forward.
- The opt-in *page* and its copy are `../landing-copy/SKILL.md`; this skill owns
  what the incentive is and how it ties into the welcome + referral flow.

## Opt-in: single vs double

| | Single opt-in | Double opt-in |
|---|---|---|
| Friction | Lower (one step) | Higher (confirm click) |
| List quality | Mixed; typos and traps slip in | High; only confirmed addresses |
| Complaint / spam-trap risk | Higher | Lower |
| Best for | Low-risk, already-warm audiences | Default for protecting reputation |

Default to **double opt-in.** Complaint rate and spam traps gate the whole
sender's inbox placement; the confirmation click is cheap insurance. Segmented
sends earn ~100% higher click rates than blasts, so a clean confirmed list also
makes every later segmentation gain real. (Moosend segmentation 2025–2026 —
accessed 2026-06-02.)

## Engagement segmentation tiers

| Tier | Signal | Frequency | Track |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy | Clicked most recent 2–3 issues | Full / can add bonus sends | Primary + bonus |
| Active | Opened-and-clicked within ~30 days | Full | Primary issue |
| Cooling | No click in ~30–60 days | Reduce | Best-of / slow nurture |
| Dormant | No click in ~90+ days | Pause → re-permission → sunset | Off the main list |

Heavy clickers can take more frequency; cooling readers get less, on a best-of
track, before they sour.

## Sunset / re-permission policy

Chronically unengaged addresses get a **re-permission** email ("still want
this? click to stay") and, if no click, a **sunset** off the active list.

- **Why:** complaint rate, not list size, gates the inbox. A big dormant segment
  drags placement for everyone, including your heavy readers.
- **Keep the spam-complaint rate under 0.1%** (never reaching 0.3%) — sunsetting
  is the lever that protects it. (Yahoo Sender Hub best practices; Google
  Workspace sender guidelines — accessed 2026-06-02.)
- Re-permission is a newsletter-list hygiene step. Lifecycle reactivation of
  lapsed *paying customers* is a different job — that is `retention`.

## Send-time hypothesis

Tuesday/Thursday ~10am or 1–3pm is the cross-industry baseline starting point.
It is a hypothesis to test against your own list's click data, never a fixed law.
The test design (sample size, significance) is `ab-testing`.
