# Research, outlier math, and demand signals (2026)

All sources accessed 2026-06-02.

## Outlier score — the math, worked

```text
outlier_multiple = video_views / channel_average_views
```

The multiple is a **performance multiplier against this channel's own average**, so it is
fair across channel sizes — a raw view count is not.

| Channel avg | Video views | Multiple | Read |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6,250 | 50,000 | **8.0x** | a genuine breakout on a small channel |
| 1,800,000 | 500,000 | **0.3x** | a *miss* on a huge channel, despite the big absolute number |

Pro reading of the ranges:

- **3x or better = a real signal.** Worth mining for a reproducible trait.
- **~2x = likely noise** — inside normal channel variance; don't bet on it alone.
- **One outlier is an anecdote.** Collect **5–10** in the same niche and extract the
  *shared* trait (the cold-open stakes, the title structure, the proof format) — that
  shared trait is the bet, not the single video.

Sources: OutlierKit — "What Is a YouTube Outlier Score? (Calculation, Ranges, Uses)" and
"How to Find Viral Outlier Videos"; vidIQ Help Center — "Outliers".

## The 6-step research-led pipeline (expanded)

Brainstorm-first fails because it scores "outlier signal" on imagination. Run in order:

1. **Analyze niche channels.** Pick channels adjacent to yours that are winning.
2. **Find outlier videos.** Sort by *multiple*, not raw views. Keep ones at 3x+.
3. **Study title/thumbnail patterns.** What do the 3x+ winners share? Name it.
4. **Identify content gaps.** Demand the outliers proved, that nobody owns well — or that
   you can own better with unique proof.
5. **Check audience + trend signals.** (Sources table below.) Confirm live demand.
6. **Generate original variations.** Your angle and your proof — never a re-shoot of an
   outlier.

> "More ideas do not grow a channel. Better decisions do." — OverseerOS, "Best YouTube
> Video Idea Generator Tools in 2026" (published 2026-05-13, updated 2026-05-18).

## Demand signals — free first, paid for real volume

| Source | Tier | What it gives you |
| --- | --- | --- |
| YouTube Studio **Trends** tab | free | top searches for *your* audience + saved topics over the last 28 days |
| **Google Trends** | free | direction + seasonality of a topic (relative, not absolute volume) |
| YouTube **autocomplete** | free | the actual query phrasings real viewers type |
| **OutlierKit** | paid | outlier discovery + keyword/search volume |
| **Keywords Everywhere** | paid | search-volume numbers inline |
| **vidIQ** | paid | volume + trending tab + ~50 "Daily Ideas"/day; weights vs channel |
| **TubeBuddy** | paid | keyword score weighted against *your* channel's authority |
| **Semrush** | paid | broader keyword volume + competition |
| **1of10 / TubeLab** | paid | outlier discovery |

Note: TubeBuddy and vidIQ also offer title/thumbnail A/B testing — that is a **packaging**
job (`../youtube-packaging/SKILL.md`), not ideation. Use them here only for the demand
signal.

The three fast pre-tests every idea must pass before `produce`: (1) statable in one
sentence; (2) serves the core audience **and** reaches new viewers; (3) search/trend demand
exists and is recorded on the row.

Sources: OverseerOS idea-generator guide; OutlierKit — "YouTube Keyword Research: Complete
2026 Guide"; Semrush — "How to do YouTube keyword research: 2026 guide".

## The closed loop

The full cycle: validate idea → build hook → script → edit → publish → study the retention
graph → **feed the lesson back into the next pick**. The back-half — writing the measured
outcome back so the next scoring pass is smarter — is the part most creators skip, and the
reason the hypothesis/outcome log is append-only and dated.

Sources: OverseerOS idea-generator guide; OverseerOS — "Best YouTube Retention Tools in
2026".

## 2026 platform context that weights a bet

- **Shorts-first storytelling is the dominant discovery force.** It lowers production
  friction, tests messaging fast, and fits mobile attention — weight format reach in
  scoring. Source: Dash Social / mean.ceo 2026 trend roundup.
- **AI-content disclosure labels** are rolling out (voluntary or auto-applied). An idea that
  leans on AI-generated media can be dampened by the label — flag it on the row. Source:
  9to5Google — "AI-generated YouTube content to get 'more visible' disclosure label"
  (2026-05-27).

The durable format-mix / cadence call is **not** made here — it belongs to
`../youtube-strategy/SKILL.md`. These notes only weight the individual bet.
