# Pre-mortem Analysis

## Purpose
Imagine the idea has failed spectacularly. Work backward to identify what went wrong, surfacing risks and blind spots before they become reality.

## When to Use
- Identifying blind spots and hidden risks
- Validating high-stakes business ideas or GTM strategies
- When team/stakeholders are overly optimistic
- Before committing significant resources

## Process

1. **Set the scene**
   - "It's 12 months from now. We launched this idea and it failed completely. What happened?"

2. **Generate failure scenarios** (aim for 5-10)
   - Brainstorm every plausible reason for failure
   - Encourage worst-case thinking
   - Consider: market, execution, timing, competition, resources, team, assumptions

3. **Prioritize by likelihood + impact**
   - Which failures are most likely?
   - Which would be most damaging?
   - Focus on high-likelihood OR high-impact scenarios

4. **Root cause analysis for top failures**
   - For each priority failure: What would cause this?
   - Trace back to decisions, assumptions, or conditions

5. **Identify early warning signals**
   - How would you know this failure is beginning?
   - What metrics or indicators would show trouble?

6. **Build mitigation strategies**
   - How could you prevent this failure?
   - How could you detect it early?
   - What's your contingency plan?

7. **Synthesis**
   - Which risks can you eliminate by redesigning the idea?
   - Which risks require monitoring and contingency plans?
   - Is the idea still worth pursuing given the risks?

## Example

**Idea**: "Launch a premium AI automation consulting service for SMBs"

**Failure scenario (12 months later)**: "We shut down after 8 months with only 2 clients."

**What went wrong** (working backward):
- SMBs couldn't afford premium pricing
- Decision-makers didn't understand AI value proposition
- Sales cycles were 6+ months (unsustainable)
- We lacked case studies to prove ROI
- Competition from cheaper overseas providers

**Root causes**:
- Assumed SMBs had enterprise budgets
- Didn't validate price sensitivity
- Underestimated education required

**Early warnings**:
- High interest but low conversions
- Requests for payment plans
- "Can you just build it for us?" instead of consulting

**Mitigations**:
- Create a productized starter package at lower price
- Build 2-3 pilot projects first (case studies)
- Target SMBs in specific high-value industries
- Consider hybrid model: consulting + implementation

**Insight**: Premium consulting alone is high-risk for SMBs. Build productized entry point first.
