# Problem Validation

## Purpose
Rigorously confirm that the problem you're solving is real, painful, and worth solving before investing in solutions—the most critical validation step that most founders skip.

## When to Use
- Before building any product or MVP
- When pivoting to a new problem space
- When customer acquisition is harder than expected
- When churn is high despite a good product
- Questioning whether you're solving the right problem

## Process

### 1. Understand the Validation Sequence

**The sequence matters:**
1. Problem Validation ← You are here
2. Solution Validation
3. Product-Market Fit
4. Scale

**Most founders skip to solution.** They assume the problem exists because they've experienced it or someone mentioned it. This creates products no one needs.

### 2. The Problem Validation Criteria

A validated problem meets ALL FIVE criteria:

**1. It's Real (Exists)**
- Customers describe the problem unprompted
- It occurs regularly, not occasionally
- Multiple people experience it

**2. It's Painful (Matters)**
- Customers actively try to solve it
- It has measurable cost (time, money, stress)
- It affects important outcomes

**3. It's Urgent (Now)**
- Customers are motivated to solve it soon
- There's a trigger or timing component
- It's not a "someday" problem

**4. It's Frequent (Recurring)**
- Happens often enough to justify a solution
- Worth the effort to adopt a new tool
- Creates ongoing value (not one-time)

**5. Budget Exists (Funded)**
- Customers have or can get money to solve it
- They're already spending on alternatives
- It's worth more than the cost to solve

### 3. Problem Validation Questions

**Testing Realness:**
- "Tell me about the last time you dealt with [problem area]"
- "Walk me through what happened"
- "How did that make you feel?"

Listen for: Specific stories, emotional language, detailed recall

**Testing Pain:**
- "What did that cost you?" (time, money, opportunity)
- "What happened as a result?"
- "How important was solving this?"

Listen for: Quantified impact, consequences described, priority language

**Testing Urgency:**
- "What are you doing about this now?"
- "When do you need this solved?"
- "What would happen if you don't solve it?"

Listen for: Active searching, timeline pressure, negative consequences

**Testing Frequency:**
- "How often does this come up?"
- "Is this a regular occurrence?"
- "When did this last happen?"

Listen for: Weekly/daily occurrence, predictable triggers, ongoing pattern

**Testing Budget:**
- "What are you spending on this problem today?"
- "What budget do you have for tools in this area?"
- "Who decides spending for things like this?"

Listen for: Current spend, budget ownership, willingness to pay

### 4. Evidence Levels

Rate your confidence based on evidence:

| Level | Evidence | Confidence |
|-------|----------|------------|
| 5 | Customer paid to solve it | Very High |
| 4 | Customer actively searching for solution | High |
| 3 | Customer tried to solve it themselves | Medium |
| 2 | Customer complained about it | Low |
| 1 | Customer agreed it's a problem when asked | Very Low |

**Level 5 evidence:** "I hired someone to handle this" / "I bought a tool"
**Level 4 evidence:** "I've been Googling solutions"
**Level 3 evidence:** "I built a spreadsheet for this"
**Level 2 evidence:** "Yeah, that's really annoying"
**Level 1 evidence:** "Sure, I guess that's a problem"

### 5. Problem Validation Scorecard

For each interview, score the five criteria:

| Criterion | Score (1-5) | Evidence |
|-----------|-------------|----------|
| Real | 4 | Described specific incident |
| Painful | 5 | Costs them 5 hours/week |
| Urgent | 3 | "Need to fix this quarter" |
| Frequent | 4 | Happens 2-3x per week |
| Budget | 3 | $200/mo spent on workarounds |

**Total: 19/25 - Strong problem validation**

### 6. Aggregate Across Interviews

After 10+ interviews, look for patterns:

| Criterion | Avg Score | Consistent? |
|-----------|-----------|-------------|
| Real | 4.2 | Yes (all mention) |
| Painful | 3.8 | Mixed (varies by role) |
| Urgent | 2.5 | No (not time-sensitive) |
| Frequent | 4.0 | Yes (weekly+) |
| Budget | 3.2 | Mixed (startups vs. enterprise) |

**Interpretation:**
- Problem is real and frequent ✓
- Pain varies by segment (narrow the target)
- Urgency is weak (need trigger or timing)
- Budget exists but inconsistent (pricing sensitivity)

### 7. Red Flags

**Problem may not be valid if:**

- Only you experience it (n=1 problem)
- People only agree when prompted
- No one has tried to solve it
- It's theoretical ("I might someday...")
- No budget exists anywhere
- Frequency is rare (annual event)
- Cost is low (doesn't justify solution)

**False validation signals:**

- "That sounds like a great idea!" (enthusiasm ≠ validation)
- "I would definitely use that" (hypothetical ≠ real)
- "You should build that" (advice ≠ commitment)

### 8. When to Move On

**Problem validated when:**
- 8/10+ interviews score 18/25+ on scorecard
- Customers have tried to solve it themselves
- Budget exists or can be found
- You can find more customers like this easily

**Problem NOT validated when:**
- Scores inconsistent across interviews
- No one has tried to solve it
- Budget doesn't exist
- Problem is "nice to have" not "must solve"

**If not validated:** Find a different problem or different customer segment.

### 9. Synthesis

After problem validation interviews:
- Is this problem real, painful, urgent, frequent, and funded?
- Who experiences this problem most intensely?
- What triggers the problem? (Marketing insight)
- What are they currently doing about it?
- Should we proceed to solution validation?

## Example

**Hypothesis**: "Small business owners struggle to track cash flow"

### Interview 1: Maria, bakery owner

| Criterion | Score | Evidence |
|-----------|-------|----------|
| Real | 5 | "I check my bank every morning" |
| Painful | 4 | "Almost missed payroll twice" |
| Urgent | 5 | "I need this fixed now" |
| Frequent | 5 | "Daily stress" |
| Budget | 3 | "I have QuickBooks but it doesn't help" |
| **Total** | **22/25** | Strong validation |

### Interview 2: James, freelance consultant

| Criterion | Score | Evidence |
|-----------|-------|----------|
| Real | 3 | "Sometimes I lose track" |
| Painful | 2 | "Not really a big deal" |
| Urgent | 1 | "Maybe eventually" |
| Frequent | 2 | "When quarterly taxes are due" |
| Budget | 2 | "I just use a spreadsheet" |
| **Total** | **10/25** | Weak validation |

### Interview 3: Linda, restaurant owner

| Criterion | Score | Evidence |
|-----------|-------|----------|
| Real | 5 | "Biggest source of stress" |
| Painful | 5 | "Had to take emergency loan" |
| Urgent | 5 | "Dealing with this right now" |
| Frequent | 5 | "Think about it every day" |
| Budget | 4 | "Pay my accountant $500/mo" |
| **Total** | **24/25** | Strong validation |

### Aggregate Analysis (10 interviews)

| Segment | Avg Score | Pattern |
|---------|-----------|---------|
| Retail/Food owners | 22.3 | Strong problem |
| Service providers | 14.2 | Weak problem |
| Professional services | 12.1 | Weak problem |

### Findings

**Problem validated for:** Retail and food business owners
**Problem NOT validated for:** Freelancers and professional services

**Key insight:** The problem is real for businesses with:
- High transaction volume (daily)
- Variable revenue (seasonal, weather-dependent)
- Tight margins (cash-sensitive)
- Multiple expenses (rent, payroll, inventory)

**Not a problem for:** Businesses with:
- Predictable revenue (retainers, subscriptions)
- Low expense volume
- Comfortable margins

### Decision

**Proceed with solution validation** for retail/food segment
**Do NOT pursue** freelancer/consultant segment

**Refined problem statement:**
"Retail and food business owners struggle to predict cash flow and avoid shortfalls due to variable daily revenue and multiple recurring expenses."

**Insight:** The problem validation revealed that "small business owners" was too broad. The problem intensity varied 2x between segments. By narrowing to retail/food, the team avoided building for a segment that doesn't feel the pain urgently enough to buy.
