---
name: Financial Modeling — Cash Flow, Runway, Unit Economics
priority: 2
keywords: cash flow, تدفق نقدي, runway, مدى, financial model, نموذج مالي, burn rate, معدل الإنفاق, unit economics, اقتصاديات الوحدة, cac, ltv, ltv cac, gross margin, الهامش الإجمالي, p&l, revenue forecast, توقعات الإيرادات, breakeven, نقطة التعادل, scenario, سيناريو, projection, إسقاطات
---

# Financial Modeling — SMB Operating Models

## When to use

Owner asks "how much runway do I have?", "what's my CAC?", "should I raise prices?", "show me a 12-month forecast", or wants to evaluate hiring/spending decisions.

## Core formulas

```
Burn rate (monthly) = Total operating expenses - Recurring revenue
Runway (months)     = Cash on hand / Burn rate
CAC                 = Sales+marketing spend / new paying customers acquired
LTV                 = ARPU × Gross margin × (1 / Churn rate)
LTV:CAC             = ≥3 healthy, ≥5 strong, <1.5 broken
Gross margin        = (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue
Payback period      = CAC / (ARPU × Gross margin)
```

## Saudi SMB benchmarks (2026)

| Metric | Healthy range |
|--------|---------------|
| Gross margin (SaaS) | 70-85% |
| Gross margin (e-commerce) | 30-50% after COGS+fees |
| Net margin (services) | 15-25% |
| AR days | <45 |
| Cash buffer | 3-6 months opex minimum |
| Salla/Zid take rate | 2.5-3% on transactions |
| HyperPay/Moyasar fee | 2.5% + 1.5 SAR |

## Building a 12-month forecast

Inputs needed:
1. Starting cash on hand.
2. Existing recurring revenue (MRR/ARR).
3. New customer acquisition rate per month.
4. Average revenue per customer.
5. Gross margin.
6. Fixed costs (rent, salaries, software).
7. Variable cost rate.
8. Hiring plan (when + at what cost).
9. One-time spends (marketing campaigns, equipment).

Output a month-by-month table with: revenue, cogs, gross profit, opex, net cash flow, ending cash, runway-remaining.

## Scenarios to always run

- **Base case** — current trajectory.
- **Optimistic** — +30% growth, plan checked.
- **Conservative** — -30% growth, runway preserved.
- **Crisis** — 50% revenue drop next month, what's the cut list.

## Hiring decision template

When owner asks "can I afford to hire X?":
1. Total cost = base + GOSI 11.75% (KSA) + 30% loaded burden (laptop/seat/ramp).
2. Months until role pays for itself = months_to_first_revenue + months_to_breakeven.
3. Worst case: if role generates 0 revenue, runway shrinks by X months.
4. Recommendation: only hire if (a) replaces a clear constraint OR (b) directly pays back within 9 months.

## Pricing change analysis

Before recommending a price change, model:
- Elasticity assumption (default: 10% price up = 5% volume down for B2B SMB).
- Net revenue impact across 3 scenarios.
- Risk: which existing customers churn at what threshold.
- Communication plan: 60 days notice, grandfather existing for 3-6 months.

## Output discipline

ALWAYS show numbers as a markdown table. NEVER round to "approximately" — use exact figures from the latest data. If inputs are missing, ask once for the specific missing inputs (don't guess).

When recommending a financial decision >10,000 SAR impact, escalate (don't auto-act). Include unbiased counterargument.
