# Unlinked brand mentions out-correlate backlinks ~3x for AI visibility

**Confidence: [H]** (Ahrefs 75,000-brand study)

Spearman correlation with AI citation presence (AI Overviews, ChatGPT, AI
Mode): **unlinked web mentions 0.664** · YouTube mentions **0.737** (the
strongest single predictor) · brand search volume 0.334 · **backlinks 0.218**.
The "mention-source divide": AI often recommends _your brand_ while citing a
_third-party page_ (G2, Reddit, press, directories).

**How to apply:** earned third-party presence (reviews, listicles, press,
YouTube, communities) is a first-class AEO tactic, co-equal with on-site
work. Backlinks are demoted, not dead — they still feed classic ranking,
which feeds RAG retrieval. Budget accordingly.

**Evidence:** https://ahrefs.com/blog/ai-overview-brand-correlation/ (2025-2026)
