## Geoeconomics Overlay

### Activation
Apply this overlay when `study-designer` is used for geoeconomics research on sanctions, export controls, financial statecraft, industrial policy, supply chains, investment screening, or strategic competition.

### Required Context
- Require sender, target, instrument, intermediaries, affected market, response channel, timing, exposure measure, and target venue.
- Require the strategic objective: coercion, deterrence, resilience, signaling, industrial policy, substitution, or mixed.
- Require the evidence available for target response and countermeasures before recommending design.

### Subject-Specific Procedure
1. Build an instrument-sender-target-response map before selecting data or method.
2. Define exposure using trade, ownership, technology, financial network, supply chain, or policy-channel measures.
3. Specify timing, anticipation, policy bundling, evasion, substitution, and countermeasure risks.
4. Match design leverage to claim strength: descriptive mapping, event study, panel design, case comparison, network analysis, or mixed evidence.
5. Separate strategic mechanism evidence from market reaction, compliance burden, or broad geopolitical narrative.

### Reviewer-Risk Checks
- Check whether treatment timing is confounded by bundled policies or prior anticipation.
- Check whether target response is measured or only assumed.
- Check whether exposure captures the relevant instrument rather than generic openness or size.

### Output Requirements
- The study design artifact must include `Sender`, `Instrument`, `Target`, `Exposure`, `Timing`, `Response Channel`, and `Countermeasure Risk`.
- The design must state whether claims are descriptive, causal, mechanism-supported, or policy-calibrated.
- Missing exposure or response data must be marked as blocked checks.

### Blocked Conditions
- Block causal statecraft claims when timing, exposure, or comparison logic is absent.
- Block strategic mechanism claims when only policy rhetoric or announcement dates are available.
- Do not infer coercion, deterrence, or resilience without target response evidence.
