---
description: Use this skill for equity research workflows — earnings analysis/updates, morning notes, sector overviews, initiating coverage reports, thesis tracking, catalyst calendars, earnings previews, model updates, and stock screening/idea generation. Triggers on: earnings update, quarterly results, morning note, sector overview, initiation report, investment thesis, catalyst calendar, earnings preview, stock screen, idea generation, equity research, coverage.
---

# Equity Research

Institutional-quality equity research workflows adapted from [Anthropic's Financial Services reference](https://github.com/anthropics/financial-services). Covers the full research lifecycle from idea generation to published reports.

## Data Sources

1. **VisionClaw stock_data tool** — real-time quotes, historical prices, financial statements
2. **Web search** — SEC EDGAR, company IR pages, earnings transcripts, news
3. **User-provided data** — uploaded documents, models, prior research
4. **MCP data servers** (if configured) — Morningstar, FactSet, S&P Global, etc.

**CRITICAL**: Always search for the LATEST data. Do NOT rely on training data for earnings, prices, or estimates. Verify dates are current.

---

## 1. Earnings Analysis / Quarterly Update

### When to Use
Post-earnings report for companies already under coverage. Fast turnaround (24-48 hours after earnings).

### Output
8-12 page DOCX report, 3,000-5,000 words, 8-12 charts, 1-3 summary tables.

### Workflow

**Phase 1: Data Collection**
1. Search for latest earnings release, 10-Q filing, earnings call transcript
2. Verify release date is recent (within 3 months)
3. Collect: actual results, consensus estimates, prior guidance, management commentary

**Phase 2: Analysis**
- **Beat/Miss**: Lead with whether company beat or missed on revenue, EPS, key metrics
- Quantify variances: "Revenue beat by $120M or 3%"
- Explain WHY results differed from expectations
- **Segment breakdown**: Performance by business segment/geography
- **Margin analysis**: Gross margin, operating margin trends
- **Guidance update**: New guidance vs prior vs consensus

**Phase 3: Updated Estimates**
- Show old vs new estimates clearly
- Explain what changed and why
- Adjust price target if warranted

**Phase 4: Report Structure**
- Page 1: Summary — rating, price target, key takeaways, beat/miss table
- Pages 2-3: Detailed results analysis
- Pages 4-5: Key metrics & guidance
- Pages 6-7: Updated investment thesis
- Pages 8-10: Valuation & estimates
- Pages 11-12: Appendix (optional)

### Citation Requirements
Every figure/table must cite: earnings release, 10-Q, transcript, consensus source with dates and URLs.

---

## 2. Morning Note

### When to Use
Daily morning meeting prep — overnight developments, trade ideas, key events for coverage stocks.

### Output
1 page max, readable in 2 minutes. Markdown or plain text for email/Slack.

### Format

```
[Date] Morning Note — [Analyst/Team]
[Sector Coverage]

TOP CALL: [Headline — the one thing PMs need to hear]
- 2-3 sentences on the key development and why it matters
- Stock impact: price target, rating reiteration/change

OVERNIGHT/PRE-MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
- [Company A]: One-line summary + our take
- [Company B]: One-line summary + our take
- [Sector/Macro]: Relevant sector-wide development

KEY EVENTS TODAY
- [Time]: [Company] earnings call
- [Time]: Economic data release
- [Time]: Conference or investor day

TRADE IDEAS (if any)
- [Long/Short] [Company]: 1-2 sentence thesis + catalyst
- Risk: What would make this wrong
```

### Quick Earnings Reaction (if applicable)

| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Beat/Miss |
|--------|-----------|--------|-----------|
| Revenue | | | |
| EPS | | | |
| Key metric | | | |
| Guidance | | | |

**Our Take**: 2-3 sentences. **Action**: Maintain/Upgrade/Downgrade?

### Rules
- Be opinionated — notes without a view are useless
- Lead with the most important thing
- "No news" is valid — say so and move on
- Time-stamp your takes

---

## 3. Sector Overview

### When to Use
Industry landscape and thematic reports. Covers market structure, competitive dynamics, and investment implications.

### Workflow
1. **Market sizing**: TAM, growth rate, key growth drivers
2. **Industry structure**: Fragmentation, consolidation trends, value chain
3. **Competitive landscape**: Major players, market share, positioning
4. **Key themes**: Technology disruption, regulatory changes, secular trends
5. **Investment implications**: Which companies benefit, stock picks, risks

### Output
Structured report with data tables, market share charts, and clear investment conclusions.

---

## 4. Initiating Coverage

### When to Use
First research report on a company — comprehensive deep dive.

### Output
30-50 page report, 10,000-15,000 words, 25-35 charts, 12-20 tables, full financial model (XLS).

### Structure
1. **Investment Summary** (2 pages): Rating, PT, thesis in 3-5 pillars, key risks
2. **Company Overview** (6-10 pages): Business model, products, customers, management, history
3. **Industry Analysis** (4-6 pages): Market size, growth, competitive dynamics, barriers
4. **Financial Analysis** (6-8 pages): Historical performance, quality of earnings, key drivers
5. **Valuation** (4-6 pages): DCF, comps, precedent transactions, football field
6. **Financial Model** (4-6 pages): Projected IS/BS/CF, key assumptions
7. **Risk Factors** (2-3 pages): Bull/bear scenarios with signposts
8. **Appendix**: Data tables, methodology notes

### Critical Requirements
- Every data point must be sourced with specific document + date
- Bull AND bear case must be presented honestly
- Financial model must be delivered as working Excel file
- Price target must be derived from explicit valuation methodology

---

## 5. Thesis Tracker

### When to Use
Maintaining and updating investment theses for covered stocks.

### Format per Stock

```
[Company] — [Rating] — PT: $[X]

ORIGINAL THESIS (date initiated):
1. [Pillar 1]: [Status: On track / At risk / Broken]
2. [Pillar 2]: [Status]
3. [Pillar 3]: [Status]

KEY SIGNPOSTS:
- [Metric/Event]: [Target] → [Actual/Current] → [Assessment]

THESIS CHANGES:
- [Date]: [What changed and why]

CURRENT CONVICTION: [High / Medium / Low]
NEXT CATALYST: [Event + expected date]
```

---

## 6. Catalyst Calendar

### When to Use
Tracking upcoming catalysts across coverage universe.

### Format

| Date | Company | Event | Expected Impact | Our View |
|------|---------|-------|----------------|----------|
| | | Earnings | | |
| | | FDA decision | | |
| | | Product launch | | |
| | | Regulatory ruling | | |
| | | Conference | | |

Maintain rolling 90-day forward view. Update weekly.

---

## 7. Earnings Preview

### When to Use
Pre-earnings scenario analysis before a company reports.

### Structure
1. **Consensus expectations**: Revenue, EPS, key metrics
2. **Our estimates vs consensus**: Where we differ and why
3. **Key things to watch**: 3-5 specific metrics/commentary items
4. **Scenario analysis**:
   - Bull case: What beats look like + stock reaction estimate
   - Base case: In-line results + limited move
   - Bear case: What misses look like + downside risk
5. **Trading setup**: Pre-earnings positioning, implied move from options

---

## 8. Stock Screening / Idea Generation

### When to Use
Systematic screening for investment ideas based on quantitative and qualitative criteria.

### Screening Framework
1. **Define universe**: Sector, market cap range, geography
2. **Quantitative filters**: Growth rate, margins, valuation, momentum
3. **Qualitative overlay**: Competitive position, management, catalyst path
4. **Rank and shortlist**: Top 5-10 ideas with quick thesis for each
5. **Output**: Screening summary table + 1-paragraph thesis per idea

---

## 9. Model Update

### When to Use
Updating financial models with new data (quarterly results, guidance changes, M&A).

### Workflow
1. Identify what changed (new quarter actuals, revised guidance, M&A)
2. Update historical actuals in the model
3. Revise forward estimates based on new information
4. Recalculate valuation (DCF, comps)
5. Update price target if warranted
6. Document all changes: old estimate → new estimate → reason

---

## General Research Standards

- **Timeliness**: Earnings updates within 24-48 hours. Morning notes before market open.
- **Objectivity**: Present bull AND bear cases. Don't minimize risks.
- **Sourcing**: Every number must have a source. Mark unsourced estimates as `[ESTIMATE]`.
- **Consistency**: Use the same metrics and methodology across coverage universe.
- **Actionability**: Every piece of research should answer "so what should I do?"

*Adapted from Anthropic Financial Services (Apache 2.0). No paid data subscriptions required.*
